Workshops PhD Political Economy Political Economy Workshop Archive Public Policy & Economics PPE Workshop Archive Thursday, May 2, Keller 000112:30pm - Brian CurranMisleading Estimates from Nonlinear Models with a Binary OutcomeAbstract: When estimating nonlinear models for binary outcomes, such as probit and logit models, researchers often calculate an average partial effect (APE) to summarize the effect of a regressor. Because the marginal effect of a variable depends on the values of all other variables in such nonlinear specifications, the value of the APE thus hinges on what part of the sample one averages over. If averaged over parts of the sample that are irrelevant for the identifying variation, then the calculated APE may deviate from the most relevant marginal effect. In this paper, we describe a set of common situations within nonlinear binary outcome models where APEs from nonlinear binary outcome models can be misleading and suggest a simple solution to the problem in some cases. This issue arises when an APE is calculated over the entire sample, but the identifying variation comes from only a subset of the sample. We start by laying out a stylized model of the problem and use simulations to show that the approach used in many papers can yield misleading estimates. We then recalculate estimates from published papers, finding that the published results are often statistically significantly different from the correctly specified estimates.1:10pm - Matt StadnickiWhat Effect Does the Child Tax Credit Have on College Attendance? Evidence from IRS Tax DataAbstract: While a large component of the economics literature has examined the effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), comparatively less research has been conducted on the Child Tax Credit (CTC). In this proposed study, I plan to investigate the effects of the CTC on the college attendance of recipients' children. Using IRS tax data linked to other administrative data, I first plan to leverage an age discontinuity in when children can be claimed for the CTC to examine the effect of shifting CTC receipt toward earlier in a child's life on future college attendance. I also plan to leverage the implementation of the CTC in 1997, combined with the same previously mentioned age discontinuity to investigate the effect of different years of exposure to the CTC on college attendance. Upcoming PresentersMay 2, 12:30pmBrian Curran Keller 0001May 2, 1:10pmMatthew StadnickiKeller 0001May 9, 12:30pmNeila KerkebaneKeller 0001May 9, 1:10pmSofia GalloKeller 0001May 16, 12:30pmOskar HouckKeller 0001May 16, 1:10pmDaisy LuKeller 0001May 23, 12:30pmSushant BanjaraVirtualMay 23, 1:10pmLucas MationVirtualPast PresentersOct 5Ruochen Yi, Political structure and Balance of power, evidence from mid-level officials' promotion in ChinaOct 12Angela Wyse, Saved by Medicaid: New Evidence on Health Insurance and Mortality from the Universe of Low-Income AdultsNov 9Mythili Vinnakota, Levees: Infrastructure and Insurance as Adaptation to Flood RiskNov 30Wendy Wong, Optimal Monitoring and Bureaucrat AdjustmentsDec 7Elena Ziege, Educational Spillovers: The Effect of Birthright Citizenship on Siblings' EducationJan 11Maya Lozinski, Knowledge Growth and SpecializationJan 18Steve Kim, Industrial Policy: When Does It Work?Jan 18Gina Eckhoff, Putting Simplicity Back into New Economic GeographyJan 25Ari Anisfeld, "Remind me to go to back to college": The impact of government communications on FAFSA renewal and re-enrollmentJan 25Predrag Pandiloski, Social Learning in Diverse SocietiesFeb 1Daniel Sonnenstuhl, The Causes and Implications of the Pentecostal Movement: Evidence from NigeriaFeb 8José Miguel Pascual Moreno, Bargaining at the FirmFeb 15Danielle Nemschoff, Family Bonds and RecidivismFeb 22Goya Razavi Ebrahimi, Who Benefits From Free Colleges?Feb 29Haoran Gao, Competition, Market, Supply Chain, and (Dis)engagement: Determinants and Consequences of American Business Community's Lobbying on US-China EngagementMar 7Claire Fan, Dam thy neighbor: Spillovers and coordination on transboundary riversMar 21Emileigh Harrison, Separation of Church and State Curricula? Examining Public and Religious Private School TextbooksMar 21Rohen Shah, When The Student Becomes the Master: Learning by Creating Math Tutoring VideosMar 28Kisoo Kim , Lame Duck by Primary: Effects of Electoral Incentives on U.S. House RepresentativesMar 28Keisuke Ito, Is the Adoption of Renewable Energy Technologies Too Fast and Too Much?: Evidence from Solar SystemsApr 4Rubina Hundal, From Learning to Earning: Effects of Financial Literacy, Career Information, and Social Learning on Youth Wage PreferencesApr 11Alison Doxey, How Much Do Cash Transfers Compensate Children for the Loss of a Father? Evidence from Mining Accidents and Workers' CompensationApr 11Nathan Ausubel, A National Study of the Effect of School Quality on Housing PricesApr 18Smriti Ganapathi, Policing Intimate Partner Violence: Curbing Abuse or Shifting it?Apr 18Michael McKelligott, Household Hygienic Infrastructure and Infectious Disease Mortality: Evidence from the 'New Public Health' and the Spanish FluApr 25Felicity Zhang, Social Learning among PhysiciansApr 25Peizan Sheng, Sensitivity of Formula Instruments to Shock DesignBarbara WilliamsEmail barbaraw@uchicago.eduSteans Professor in Educational PolicySteven Durlauf Steven Durlauf’s research spans many topics in microeconomics and macroeconomics. His most important substantive contributions involve the areas of poverty, inequality and economic growth.