About Anthony Fowler

Anthony Fowler is Associate Professor in the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago. His research applies econometric methods for causal inference to questions in political science, with particular emphasis on elections and political representation. Specific interests include the causes and consequences of unequal voter turnout, explanations for incumbent success, the politics of policymaking in legislatures, and the credibility of empirical research.

Publications

Fowler, Anthony. Forthcoming. Does Voter Preregistration Increase Youth Participation? Election Law Journal.  Replication Data.

Enos, Ryan D. and Anthony Fowler. Forthcoming. Aggregate Effects of Large-Scale Campaigns on Voter Turnout. Political Science Research and Methods. Replication Data.

Enos, Ryan D., Anthony Fowler, and Christopher S. Havasy. Forthcoming. The Negative Effect Fallacy: A Case Study of Incorrect Statistical Reasoning by Federal Courts. Journal of Empirical Legal Studies.

Fowler, Anthony and Andrew B. Hall. 2017. Long Term Consequences of Election Results. British Journal of Political Science 47(2):351-372. Replication Data.

Fowler, Anthony. 2016. What Explains Incumbent Success? Disentangling Selection on Party, Selection on Candidate Characteristics, and Office-Holding Benefits. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 11(3):313-338. Replication Data.

Berry, Christopher R. and Anthony Fowler. 2016. Cardinals or Clerics? Congressional Committees and the Distribution of Pork. American Journal of Political Science 60(3):692-708. Replication Data.

Fowler, Anthony and Andrew B. Hall. 2016. The Elusive Quest for Convergence. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 11(1):131-149. Replication Data.

Fowler, Anthony and B. Pablo Montagnes. 2015. College Football, Elections, and False-Positive Results in Observational Research. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112(45):13800-13804. Replication Data. Reply to HMM (part 1). Reply to HMM (part 2).

Eggers, Andrew C., Anthony Fowler, Jens Hainmueller, Andrew B. Hall, James M. Snyder, Jr. 2015. On the Validity of the Regression Discontinuity Design for Estimating Electoral Effects: New Evidence from Over 40,000 Close Races. American Journal of Political Science 59(1):259-274. Replication Data.

Fowler, Anthony. 2015. Regular Voters, Marginal Voters, and the Electoral Effects of Turnout. Political Science Research and Methods 3(2):205-219. Replication Data.

Fowler, Anthony and Andrew B. Hall. 2015. Congressional Seniority and Pork: A Pig Fat Myth? European Journal of Political Economy 40:42-56. Replication Data.

Fowler, Anthony and Andrew B. Hall. 2014. Disentangling the Personal and Partisan Incumbency Advantages: Evidence from Close Elections and Term Limits. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 9(4):501-531. Replication Data.

Enos, Ryan D., Anthony Fowler, and Lynn Vavreck. 2014. Increasing Inequality: The Effect of GOTV Mobilization on the Composition of the Electorate. Journal of Politics 76(1):273-288. Replication Data.

Atkinson, Matthew D. and Anthony Fowler.  2014. Social Capital and Voter Turnout: Evidence from Saint's Day Fiestas in Mexico. British Journal of Political Science 44(1):41-59. Replication Data.

Enos, Ryan D. and Anthony Fowler. 2014. Pivotality and Turnout: Evidence from a Field Experiment in the Aftermath of a Tied Election. Political Science Research and Methods 2(2):309-319.  Replication Data.

Fowler, Anthony and Michele Margolis. 2014. The Political Consequences of Uninformed Voters. Electoral Studies 34:100-110. Replication Data.

Fowler, Anthony. 2013. Electoral and Policy Consequences of Voter Turnout: Evidence from Compulsory Voting in Australia. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 8(2):159-182.  Replication Data.

Dowling, Conor M., Ryan D. Enos, Anthony Fowler, and Costas Panagopoulos. 2012. Does Public Financing Chill Political Speech? Exploiting a Court Injunction as a Natural Experiment. Election Law Journal 11(3):302-315. Replication Data.
 

Working Papers and Papers Under Review

Fowler, Anthony. A Bayesian Explanation for Incumbency Advantage.

Fowler, Anthony, Haritz Garro, and Jorg L. Spenkuch. Quid Pro Quo? Corporate Returns to Campaign Contributions.

Berry, Christopher R. and Anthony Fowler. Committee Chairs and the Concentration of Power within Congress.

Berry, Christopher R. and Anthony Fowler. RIFLE: A Quantitative Test of Leaders Effects. 

Fowler, Anthony and Andrew B. Hall. Do Shark Attacks Influence Presidential Elections?

Fowler, Anthony and Andrew B. Hall. Conservative Vote Probabilities: An Easier Method for the Analysis of Roll Call Data.
CVP Estimates for the U.S. House, Congresses 1-113
CVP Estimates for the U.S. Senate, Congresses 1-113
Issue-specific CVP Estimates for the U.S. House, Congresses 83-111
 

Other Writings

Fowler, Anthony. 2016. Football games, shark attacks, and why voters may not be so incompetent after all. UChicago News.

Berry, Christopher R. and Anthony Fowler. 2016. Congressional Committee Membership Is Less Important Than Previous Thought, but Chairs Are Really Influential. American Politics and Policy Blog, London School of Economics and Political Science.

Fowler, Anthony and Andrew B. Hall. 2015. Elections Have Big Consequences that Last for Decades. American Politics and Policy Blog, London School of Economics and Political Science.

Fowler, Anthony. 2014. Is Get-Out-the-Vote Bad for Democracy? Boston Review.

Fowler, Anthony. 2014. Marginal Voters Are More Likely to Vote Democratic. American Politics and Policy Blog, London School of Economics and Political Science.

Fowler, Anthony and Michele Margolis. 2014. A More Informed Electorate Would Benefit the Democratic Party. American Politics and Policy Blog, London School of Economics and Political Science.

Enos, Ryan D. and Anthony Fowler. 2014. Get Out the Vote Interventions Increase Inequality in Voter Turnout. American Politics and Policy Blog, London School of Economics and Political Science.

Enos, Ryan D. and Anthony Fowler. 2014. The Surprising Parity of the 2012 Ground Game. The Monkey Cage.

Enos, Ryan D. and Anthony Fowler. 2013. Obama's Voter Mobilization Was Barely More Effective than Romney's. The Monkey Cage.

Fowler, Anthony and Michele Margolis. 2012. Knowing Where You Stand: How Informing the Voters Helps the Democrats. Boston Review.

Panagopoulous, Costas, Conor M. Dowling, Ryan D. Enos, and Anthony Fowler. 2011. Amici Brief to the Supreme Court of the United States, Arizona Free Enterprise v. Bennett.

Enos, Ryan D. and Anthony Fowler. 2010. Does YOUR Vote Count? YouGov Model Politics Blog.

Enos, Ryan D. and Anthony Fowler. 2010. Do Americans Care about Politics?YouGov Model Politics Blog.
 

Teaching

Quantitative Methods in Public Policy (PBPL 26400)

Political Economy III (PPHA 41103)

The Science of Political Campaigns (PPHA 31720)

Electoral Politics (PBPL 28702) 

Public Opinion and Public Policy (PPHA 36210)