February 10, 2026

Despite a significant 29% decline in Chicago homicides in 2025,  Prof. Jens Ludwig, and co-author Katie Hill, argue that this progress is fragile because the specific causes remain unknown and likely stem from national trends rather than unique local interventions. They warn against complacency or reducing public safety budgets, noting that the expiration of federal pandemic funding could destabilize these gains. Chicago's homicide rates remain historically high compared to the 1930s or nearly 13 times more than London. 

As the city decides how to spend its increasingly scarce dollars, we need to remember that public safety is an issue that sits upstream of every other challenge Chicago is facing. Gun violence is a terrible headwind for improving education, reducing poverty, developing communities or recruiting businesses to the city. When making tough budget calls, this is not the area to cut back.

To sustain improvement, the authors advocate for the relentless use of data to optimize policing and court efficiency, alongside efforts to improve neighborhood vibrancy by cutting bureaucratic red tape, emphasizing that public safety is the prerequisite for all other economic and social development in the city.

Full article is available here.