Understand the principles of evidence-based decision making. Learn how to scrutinize data, identify false assumptions, predict unintended consequences, and ask better questions. Each day will introduce core evidence-based decision making principles with practical exercises that will address how to apply these to security, conflict, and a broad range of policy challenges. Lessons will combine in-class instruction, case studies, and hands-on small team analytical exercises. 90% of 2016 attendees said the course changed their approach to managing information processing. Day One: Correlation and Causation Morning (9 a.m. - 12 p.m.) Key Takeaway It can be difficult to distinguish between correlations and causal effects. Knowing how to do this is essential because the stakes can be high when we get it wrong. Agenda Introduction (Lecture) Is this causal? (Activity, Part 1) BREAK Correlations and Causal Effects: What they are and what they are useful for (Lecture, Part 1) Is this causal? (Activity, Part 2) Correlations and Causal Effects: Why knowing the difference matters (Lecture, Part 2) Lunch Afternoon (1 p.m. - 5 p.m.) Key Takeaway Establishing a correlation is not as easy as we may think. You have to look at the right kinds of evidence. Agenda Correlations and Lessons Learned (Prelude Activity) Introduction to the afternoon (Lecture) Is this a correlation? (Activity) Correlation Requires Variation: Challenges to establishing correlation (Lecture) BREAK Revisit the prelude (Activity) What about when success/failure is not binary? (Lecture) Forecasting (Activity) Correlations and Causal Effects: Tying it all together (Lecture) Closing remarks (Lecture) Welcome Reception Day Two: Question Causality Morning (9 a.m. - 12 p.m.) Key Takeaways Sometimes correlation is causation, but you can’t trust an interpretation of causal relationships without accounting for confounders. When using evidence of a correlation to gauge the effect of your planned actions, it is critical to assess whether a causal interpretation of that correlation is credible and plausible. To do so, ask: Are there unaccounted confounders? Is there reverse causality? Agenda Frame the day (Lecture) Confounding (Activity) Making valid comparisons, drawing valid conclusions (Interactive Lecture) Confounding/Selection (Activity) BREAK Now what? Questions you should ask when someone purports to give you a causal relationship (Lecture) Signing the Bias: The first thing to do when you have a confounded relationship (Lecture) Signing the Bias (Activity) Lunch Afternoon (1 p.m. - 5 p.m.) Key Takeaways There are a range of approaches to pulling causal relationships out of potentially confounded correlations. Four of them are easy to implement and do not require particularly sophisticated analyses: signing the bias, controlling, differencing, and elaborating. Agenda Frame the afternoon (Lecture) Controlling (Lecture) Controlling (Activity) BREAK What can you do when you can’t measure the confounders? Differencing (Lecture) Thinking through confounders (Activity) BREAK How do you establish causality when you can’t difference or control? Elaboration (Lecture) Pulling it all together (Activity) Day Three: Principles and Leadership Morning (9 a.m. - 1 p.m.) Key Takeaways Before making an evidence-based decision, be sure to: Turn statistics into substance Measure your mission Make valid analogies Build effective teams Establish the right culture/norms/processes Gather the right data Agenda Frame the day (Lecture) Turn statistics into substance (Lecture) Measure your mission (Interactive Lecture) Did you measure your mission? (Activity) BREAK Make Valid Analogies: External validity (Interactive Lecture) General Principles/Information Processing Best Practices (Lecture) Leading evidence-based decisions (Lecture) Closing remarks (Lecture) LUNCH The last day is a half-day only. Exec Ed - LEBD Sign-Up Submit an application or contact us for more information. Request Info Apply Now Faculty Spotlight Ethan Bueno de Mesquita Sydney Stein Professor and Deputy Dean Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, AB'96, is an applied game theorist whose research focuses on political violence—especially terrorism, insurgency, and rebellion—and on democratic accountability. Read more Recent News Student Profile: Noah Fischer, MPP class of ’23 Wed., February 24, 2021 Leaders in Sports, Business and Politics Get Credit—and Blame. How Much Do They Really Deserve? Tue., February 23, 2021 More news Upcoming Events Writing Persuasive Public Policy Virtual Drop In with Admissions Mon., March 01, 2021 | 12:00 PM A link will be sent to registered guests Chicago, IL 60637 United States Credential Q&A with Admissions Mon., March 01, 2021 | 6:30 PM A link will be sent to registered guests Chicago, IL 60637 United States More events
Exec Ed - LEBD Sign-Up Submit an application or contact us for more information. Request Info Apply Now